On Friday, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post published his ranking of the top ten Senate seats most likely to change hands next year:
1. Colorado (R)
2. New Hampshire (R)
3. Louisiana (D)
4. Maine (R)
5. Minnesota (R)
6. Virginia (R)
7. Oregon (R)
8. Nebraska (R)
9. South Dakota (D)
10. Kentucky (R)
Not a bad list for Democrats at all, but somehow I imagine SSP readers coming up with a slightly different analysis. So: I turn the floor over to you. How would you rank the top ten Senate races in order of those seats most likely to flip control in November 2008? (And, if you feel inclined, please state your rationale.) Would states like Alaska, New Mexico, or Texas make it into your top ten? Of course, there are many variables left unknown: retirements and challenger quality, for instance. So you’re going to have to break out those crystal balls.
For a full list of 2008’s Senate races, see the DSCC or the 2008 Race Tracker.
1. New Hampshire
2. Louisiana
3. Colorado
4. Minnesota
5. Oregon
6. Maine
7. South Dakota
8. North Carolina
9. Texas
10. Virginia
1 New Hampshire
2 Colorado
3 Maine
4 Minnesota
5 Oregon
6 Louisiana
7 Virgina
8 Nebraska
9 South Dakota
10 Kentucky
That's the problem I see. Not a big Landrieu fan (and even THAT'S a sstretch), but I've yet to hear who will run against her. There are a lot of people who could, but none that have stepped up.
Here are my predictions of who will run against her, in no particular order:
– GOP Gov race loser (probably John Georges)
– John Kennedy (current state Treasurer – is philosophically a Republican)
– Richard Baker (10-term Rep. Congressman from Baton Rouge)
If we Dems want to win, we gotta have balls of steel, not crystal!!!
In all seriousness, though, here's my list:
1. New Hampshire. John Sununu is totally out of step with the state, and is facing strong competition even from opponents who are not yet known throughout the state.
2. Colorado. The state is trending blue, Udall is a strong candidate, and Schaeffer is a joke.
3. Maine. Sure, Susan Collins is popular. But her record can be hung around her neck like an albatross. Before even getting to the Iraq issue, Collins' votes in favor of Justices Roberts and Alito can be trumpeted all over the state, pointing out the obvious contradiction in claiming to be pro-choice and voting to confirm those throwbacks to the 50's.
4. Louisiana. Much as I hope we don't lose this seat, the state is turning Republican at an ever-quickening pace. Sure, Landrieu has been working hard to get the necessary resources for hurricane relief . . . but, do the white Republicans throughout the state really care? Methinks not.
5. Oregon. Gordon Smith is eminenly beatable. Now if we could just find a candidate . . .
6. New Mexico. Pete Domenici is damaged goods, and New Mexico is a swing state. With the right senate candidate, and the right presidential contender at the top of the ticket, we can easily get a blue sweep in this state.
7. Virginia, with the necessary caveat that it only ranks this highly on the list if John Warner retires and Mark Warner runs. Well, either Mark Warner runs, or we find another diamond in the rough like Webb. But, hey, it happened once in Virginia, it could happen again!
8. Minnesota. If Al Franken would just get over his egotism and step out of the way, this one would rank much higher. Coleman is a savvy politician, slick as they come, and can easily tag Franken with any number of his previous on-air statements, branding him as "too liberal" for the mainstream. I know that Franken, having been a friend of Wellstone's, wants revenge. From an emotional standpoint, I completely understand that . . . but, logically, it's just a bad idea for Franken to run. Sigh.
9. South Dakota. It'll be tough for any Republican to run against the recovering Johnson, but then, the GOP has been known to slime the records of Vietnam veterans, so I certainly wouldn't put it past them to drag down a man recovering from a stroke. That, combined with the inherently Republican nature of the state, earn it a place on the list.
10. North Carolina. The state is red, and the Research Triangle has not grown to the point at which it can swing the state into the blue column. However, Liddy Dole has proven herself to be an utter embarrassment. Will the people of the state make an exception to their Republican leanings to give her the boot?
1) Virginia- Open Seat- John Warner is likely to retire. On the Democratic Side- Mark Warner runs- becomes the nominee- unopposed. On the Republican side- expect a competiive primary but Tom Davis prevails. Mark Warner- D benifits from the incumbency advantage and high popularity. . State is trending Democratic.
2) Colorado- Open Seat- State trends Democratic. Democrats have to formidable candidate- Mark Udall. Republicans have a weak candidate. Bob Schaefer.
3) New Hampshire- State is trending Democratic. John Sununu is weak due to being a freshman who narrowly won in 2002. a pro GOP year. Democrats have formidable candidates- (Jeanne Shaheen).
4) Minnesota- State leans Democratic. Norm Coleman is weak due to being a freshman who narrowly won in 2002- a pro GOP year. Democratic have credible challenger- Al Franken or Mike Ciresi.
5) New Mexico- State leans Democratic- Pete Domenici is weak due to old age and scandals- Democrats will have a credible challenger- Patricia Madrid.
6) Maine- State leans Democratic- Democrats have a top tier challenger- Tom Allen. Susan Collins is the Lincoln Chaffee of 2008.
. . . since Dole's victory and Edwards' inability to carry his own state in '04. And with '08 being a presidential year, I would not count on any inherent blueness in NC. It has potential to turn bluer as the Triangle area grows, but I would not call it blue at this juncture, at least not at the federal level.
Something to keep in mind. Charlotte is trending bluer (well maybe more of a purple). Every Mayor in the Charlotte Metro area is up for election as well. There is quite a bit of dissatisfaction McCrory (Charlotte's 6 term R mayor). He has a primary opponent and for the first time since 2001, and the democrats are putting up a candidate that should give a run for his money. There is a great deal of dissatifaction with the way mass transit is being implemented in Charlotte, and with the ever increasing school board bond issues. Add that to his building a basketball arena that a city wide vote rejected, the millions being given to NASCAR for the Hall of Fame, rejection of a living wage for city workers, and recent controversies over semi-veiled comments made about the african american community at this years 4th of July parade. With a presidential election where people here are less and less satisfied w/ republicans and a senate race where the R incumbent is seen as completely ineffective. We have a chance at really changing this state.
I am glad to see everyone moving NH up to the top. I thik we are being too optimistic about Maine and too pessimistic about Lousiana. My list:
1. NH
2. CO
3. VA: You said break out the crystal ball, and mine tells me Warner's gone, which means M. Warner is the prohibitive favourite.
4. MN: I agree with the comment about Franken, and about Coleman's savviness, but this state is just trending too blue, and the climate is just too bad for Republicans.
5. OR
6. Nebraska
7. NC: Crystal ball tells me some recruitment success is coming here as Dole's numbers look worse and worse.
8. LA
9. Maine
10. SD
until the full impact of "John" Vitter (for those who don't get the joke, Johns are people who visit hookers, though i'm sure everyone knew that) beore we rate Louisiana. the magnitude of jindals win/loss is also an important factor here. where's Louisianagirl? we need her, this is her forte.
1.) New Hampshire
2.) Colorado
3.) Virginia
4.) Louisiana
5.) Minnesota
6.) Oregon
7.) Maine
8.) Nebraska
9.) North Carolina
10.) Kentucky
I just don't buy that Tim Johnson is overly vulnerable. Yes there are going to be Republicans who think he should've quit, but it's going to be hard for someone like Mike Rounds or Dave Dewhurst to go after someone who nearly died. I think the big name GOP candidates are waiting to win Herseth Sandlin's open House seat when she takes on John Thune in 2010. I think only Landrieu is really vulnerable, and I wonder if she even is. I think she may be able to squeak by in a 2002 style victory if she faces a small name candidate. If the GOP manages to get themselves a strong candidate, then she may be toast.
Colorado and New Hampshire are done deals. I don't see how Udall or Shaheen loose. (I'm assuming Shaheen is running.)
Maine…don't underestimate Susan Collin's popularity in this state. She may not win with a margin as big as Olympia Snowe did last year, but if she wins 51%, she still wins and I look at her as an obvious favorite. Minnesota too…Franken may be able to raise the dough, but does he have the support. The state leans Democratic, but he's riled by the right as much as Ann Coulter is by the left. Oregon, we need a candidate, but Smith's anti-war position will help him. This state isn't overly Democratic.
With good enough candidates, North Carolina and Kentucky could definitely become competitive.
Lincoln Chafee was challenged in 2000, by a sitting Congressman (who represented 1/2 of the state), who was previously elected statewide (as LG). I would call that "challenged".
Today it seems like Domenici intends to seek re-election, which means we can probably exclude Chavez and Udall from making the race. Denish is going for Richardson's job, so wouldn't Madrid be one of the top Dem prospects for this race? I'm not arguing that her presence turns this race into top target, but I do believe that her emergence would garner the race much more attention. How is she not "credible", va?
I'm not sure what is going on in New Mexico, I know that a real estate guy w/ some cash has announced (Wiviott) and that Madrid has taken a new job (and is advising Edwards, right?) – so is it still a possibility that she does even get in the race?
would be a productive effort. The archipelago theory is mostly but not entirely correct, and relying just on the archipelago is too risky anyway.
West Virginia used to be small town mining communities, and Democrats won those routinely. Mining is kindof like living in a city though; the need to band together as a community for self-protection is very obvious in both cases (and is not obvious in a ranching community).
The mining-logging territories of Minnesota's Iron Range, and Montana, used to be reliably Democratic.
Small towns in New England seem to be Democratic. I've never been to New England and have no clue why that would be.
Factory towns in New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina used to be Democratic. That's cause manufacturing used to exist in smaller to midsize towns, and factory environments, just like mining, make the need to band together very obvious.
Small farmer communities in Minnesota and Iowa used to be Democratic.
I wonder if the ratio of number of workers to number of employers tells you anything. In general, the larger that number, the more likely that 1) a union and 2) regulations seem like good things to a majority of the population. In National Restaurant Association type territory, unions and regulations both seem burdensome and intrusive to even a significant fraction of the line employees.
Small farming is different because it's a bunch of people "self-employed" in a large market they can't control. Worrying about the "price of grain" and whether you'll make it, regardless of how hard you work, makes you into a Democrat damn quick.
Anyway, there should be ways to figure out which kinds of new territories we should be gunning for. Our total victory among the Creative Class was excellent, and not completely destined, or at least not until the GOP let the fundagelicals out of the attic, and Democrats suddenly became perceived as the party of All Sane People, and not just unions and minorities. An astute GOP could have captured these upper-income meritocrats if they'd played it right, but instead they just continued the Southern Strategy, made Gay the new Black, and signed a renewal contract with the Southern Baptist Convention. I don't know the future, but my gut says that that coalition is not going to take them as far as the other one they could have built might have. They chose… poorly.
Franken is outraising Ciresi by a large margin and my understanding is that Ciresi does not have 5-10 million to spend on his campaign either. Since Franken has shown he will have the resources to compete against Coleman, I think he will be the Democratic nominee.
I must first say that I highly doubt that any of any of the Democratic Senator facing re-election in 2008 are vulnerable.
Delaware-(Biden), Illinios-(Durbin), Massachussetts-(Kerry), Michigan-(Levin), Montana-(Baucus), Rhode Island-(Reed), and West Virginia-(Rockefeller)- are usally safe. They won their previous Senate races by landslide margins and they are faced with sacrificial lamb opponents.
I will also add. Arkansas-(Pryor), Iowa-(Harkin), New Jersey-(Lautenberg). These states lean Democratic at the national level and this time they are facing second or third tier opponents.
With regards to Lousiana-(Landrieu) and South Dakota-(Johnson)- I'd say the incumbents are strongly favored to win based on the fact they are not going to face any top tier challengers.
Moving to the Republican side.
The safe Republican seats are.
1)Alabama-(Sessions), Kansas-(Roberts), Kentucky(McConnell), Mississippi-(Cochran), Wyoming-(Enzi)- Republican Incumbents running for re-election. Will be facing second or third tier challengers.
2) South Carolina-(Graham), Tennessee-(Alexander). and Wyoming(Barrasso). are also safe. due to a lack of top tier challengers.
3) Georgia(Chambliss), Oklahoma(Inhofe),and Texas(Cornyn). are suppose to be safe. State leans Republican and They are less likely to face second or third tier challengers. But the incumbents have the Macaca Moments.
4) Idaho and Nebraska are possible open seats but State is overwhelmingly Republican.
The Ten most Vulnerable Seats.
10)- Alaska- Stevens is vulnerable due to scandals and old age. But Alaska leans Republican. Republican replacement should Stevens retire will be less controversial then the incumbent-
9)- Oklahoma- The state leans Republican but the incumbent is another Burns/Bunning/ Helms/Santorum. – Macaca desiese.
8) North Carolina- Dole is a weak Incumbent. A top tier candidate will have a 50-50 chance of unseating Dole.
7) Maine- Collins is a popular incumbent but She has a top tier challenger. State leans Democratic.
6) Oregon- Smith is vulnerable due to the fact Oregon is a blue state. 2008 is likely to be a Democratic year. (National coattials).
5)Minnesota- State leans Democratic. The Republican Incumbent is a freshman that narrowly won the last time around.
4)New Mexico- Pete Domenici is vulnerable due to old age and scandals. State leans Democratic. I expect a credible challenger- Patricia Madrid. Not the best candidate (Richardson/Udall) but not the worst. Has an excellent chance of winning due to the weakness of the incumbent.
3)New Hampshire- State leans Democratic. Republican Incumbent is weak due to be a freshman that narrowly won the last time around. Democrats have a top tier challengers- a popular former Governor.
2)Colorado- Open Seat .State is trending Democratic. The Republican nominee is pretty weak.
1)Virginia- Open Seat. State is trending Democratic. Republicans will have a competive primary- The nominee will be damaged goods. Democrats will unite behind a strong candidate- a popular ex Governor.
Colorado
New Hampshire
Virginia
Maine
Louisiana
South Dakota
Minnesota
Oregon
Texas
North Carolina
1. Colorado
2. New Hampshire
3. Virginia
4. Louisiana
5. Oregon
6. Maine
7. Minnesota
8. North Carolina
9. Texas
10. Kentucky
11. Nebraska
12. Oklahoma
13. Alaska
14. New Mexico
15. South Dakota
Democratic Seats
1) Arkansas-(Pryor)- The state is traditionally Democratic. The incumbent is fairly popular. Their is no credible Republican challengers. Pryor's 2008 margin of victory will be similar to Dale Bumpers 1992 victory margin against Mike Huckabee- who was then a baptist minister.
2)Delaware-(Biden)- Biden is running for re-election. Expect him to be an early dropout in the 2008 Presidential race. Republicans won't field any top tier challengers. State leans Democratic. Biden wins again by a landslide margin.
3)Illinios-(Durbin)- State is overwhelmingly Democratic. Illinios favorite or native- Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will be on the national ticket. Republicans won't field any top tier challengers. Durbin wins again by a landslide margin.
4)Iowa-(Harkin)- Harkin always gets targeted by a sitting member of Congress. Harkin ends up defeating those members- ending their political careers. This time no member of the US House is planning to challenge Harkin. Harkin should win this time by a wider margin.
5)Louisiana-(Landrieu)- State is leaning Republican due to Katrina. Landrieu is a weak incumbent due to the fact she narrowly won both of her Senate Race. Republicans have yet to field a top tier challenger. Landrieu is favored to win but margin of victory will be in the single digits.
6)Massachusetts-(Kerry)- State is overwhelmingly Democratic. The Republican Party in Massachusetts does not exist. Kerry is very safe. He wins by a landslide margin.
7)Michigan-(Levin)- State leans Democratic. Levin is a highly respected member of the US Senate from both sides of the aisle. Levin wins by a landslide margin.
8)Montana-(Baucus)- Baucus is a highly respected member of the US Senate. Republicans will be stuck with a sacrificial lamb challenger. Baucus wins by a landslide margin.
9)New Jersey-(Lautenberg)- State is overwhelmingly Democratic. Republicans don't have a credible challenger. However Lautenberg is not highly popular. Lautenberg wins by a double digit margin but below 60%.
10)Rhode Island-(Reed)- State is overwhelmingly Democratic. Republican party is non existent. Reed runs unopposed.
11)South Dakota-(Johnson)- State is overwhelmingly Republican. Against top tier Republican opponents. Johnson won by narrow margins. This time their is not top tier Republican challenger. Johnson's 2008 Senate victory is simalar to Daschle's 1998 Senate victory. It will be by a double digit margin.
12)West Virginia-(Rockefeller)- State is traditionally Democratic. Rockefeller is highly popular. Republicans don't have a credible challenger.
1)Alabama-(Sessions) State is overwhelmingly Republican. Sessions is fairly popular. Democrats don't have a top tier challenger. Sessions wins by a landslide margin.
2)Alaska-(Stevens)- Stevens is damaged good due to the scandals. Democrats will field a credible challenger. Alaska is an overwhelmingly Republican seat such that a weak Republican may be favored to win over a Strong Democratic.
3)Colorado-(OPEN)- State is trending Democratic. Republicans have a weak candidate that is too conservative for the State. I am predicting a Senator Mark Udall.
4)Georgia-(Chambliss)- State is overwhelmingly Republican. However- The Republican Incumbent- Chambliss has his Macaca momemts. Expect that race to be in the competitive collumn towards the end.
5)Idaho-(Craig)- Craig is a possible retire. Democrats have a credible candidate- Larry LaRocco- a ex member of Congress. Idaho is a overwhelmingly Republican State. Safe Republican.
6)Kansas-(Roberts)- State is overwhelmingly Republican and Democrats don't have a top tier challenger. Roberts wins by a landslide margin.
7)Kentucky-(McConnell)- This may be the 2008 version of Ohio 2006. McConell is vulnerable due to the scandals involving the Republican Governor. and the unpopularity of the Republican President. Democrats will have a credible challenger- ex AG Greg Stumbo. McConnell wins by a narrow margin.
8)Maine-(Collins)- Collins is fairly popular- but State leans Democratic and Democrats have a top tier challenger. Collins is favored to win by a narrow margin.
9)Minnesota-(Coleman)- Minnesota is a Democratic leaning state. Coleman is a weak incumbent due to the fact he narrowly won his last Senate Race. Franken and Ciresi are benifitting from Bush's unpopularity. This race is unpredictable.
10)Mississippi-(Cochran)- Mississippi is an overwhelmingly Republican state. Democrats don't have a top tier challenger. Cochran wins by a landslide margin.
11)Nebraska- (Hagel)- Hagel may retire or lose in the primary. State is overwhelmingly Republican so it is less likely for a top tier Democrat- unless it is Bob Kerrey to win. Safe Republican.
12) New Hampshire-(Sununu)-State leans Democratic. Sununu is vulnerable due to the fact he is a first termer that narrowly won last time around. Announced candidates Marchand and Swett are benifiting from Bush's unpopularity. The wild card is Jeane Shaheen. If Shaheen runs- This race becomes a Democratic pickup.
13) New Mexico-(Domenici)- Domenici is weaken due to old age and scandals. Democrats may end up with Patricia Madrid who is a credible but not a top tier challenger ie Richardson. Domenici wins by a narrow margin.
14)North Carolina-(Dole)- Dole is a weak incumbent. I expect a credible Democratic challenger. Dole wins or loses by a narrow margin.
15)Oklahoma-(Inhofe)- Oklahoma is an overwhelmingly a Republican State. However- Inhofe- suffers from a Macaca moment – He is another Bunning/Burns/Helms/Santorum. This race becomes competitive toward the last minute.
16)Oregon-(Smith)- Oregon is a Democratic leaning state. Democrats will be stuck with second or third tier challengers- Jeff Merkely or Steve Novick. The Democratic nominee may benifit from Bush's unpopularity. A narrow victory for Smith or a suprising narrow defeat for Smith.
17)South Carolina-(Graham)- South Carolina is a Republican State. Democrats don't have a top tier challenger- Graham may face opposition in the primary. Safe Republican.
18)Tennessee-(Alexander)- Alexander is fairly popular. State leans Republican. Alexander win by a double digit margin.
19)Texas-(Cornyn)- Texas is a Red State but Cornyn suffers from a Macaca Moment.
20)Virginia-(Warner)- If Warner runs again. Safe Republican. If Warner retires. then let the games begin. The likely Republican candidate is either Tom Davis or Jim Gilmore. On the Democratic side. Mark Warner may be a potential candidate. Democratic pickup if Mark Warner runs and John Warner retires.
21)Wyoming-(Enzi)- Wyoming is overwhelmingly a republican State. Enzi is fairly popular. Enzi runs unopposed.
22)Wyoming-(Barraso)- Special Election. Competion will only occur in the primary. Safe Republican.
I'm really surprised that Texas can't even crack the top 10 on most of these lists. True, it is Texas we are talking about – but Cornyn's numbers are pretty terrible. I think this race and the North Carolina race are the 2 that might really surprise next year (though both remain unlikely pick-ups).
1. Colorado (R)
2. New Hampshire (R)
3. Maine (R)
4. Minnesota (R)
5. Oregon (R)
6. Virginia (R)
7. Nebraska (R)
8. North Carolina (R)
9. Kentucky (R)
10. Texas (R)
1. Colorado- An open seat in a state that has been becoming more Democratic with each passing year. Udall began with a 1.5 million dollar fundraising lead and outraised his opponent in the second quarter
2. New Hampshire- Sununu is in serious trouble. New Hampshire has become a blue state almost overnight and polls show him in a toss-up against two second-tier democratic challengers. If former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen enters the race, then Sununu is finished.
3. Maine- Susan Collins only received 58% of the vote in 2002. Tom Allen is a tougher opponent, he has proven he can keep pace in fundraising, and the political enviroment will be much tougher.
4. Minnesota- Al Franken is fundraising well and I think will be the Democratic nominee. He also has personal wealth he can spend. If the political enviroment is bad in Minnesota in 2008 Coleman will be in even more trouble.
5. Louisiana- Mary Landrieu is doing a good job raising money and no Republican is running against her yet. With Rep. Baker's poor second quarter fundraising he does not appear likely to run. If a big name Republican runs and can raise money, I would move the race up, but that looks less likely with each passing day.
6. Virginia- If John Warner retires, which I think he will, then the race moves up. If Mark Warner runs this race moves to no. 1
7. Oregon- Sen. Smith is preparing for a tough fight. Although a top flight candidate could win here, it will be tough.
8. Nebraska- While I think Sen. Hagel will retire, until the field is known I cannot rank this race higher.
9. South Dakota- If Sen. Johnson runs this race drops out of the top 10.
10. Texas- The Democrats have a candidate willing to spend $10 million, so that at least means he can compete financially.
Lautenberg says he is running and has been raising money and Cochran is doing the same. A friend of mine in Virginia says that if John Warner retires Rep. Rick Boucher is considering running if Mark Warner passes on the Senate Race.
1. Colorado (R)
2. New Hampshire (R)
3. Louisiana (D)
4. Maine (R)
5. Minnesota (R)
6. Virginia (R)
7. Oregon (R)
8. New Mexico (R)
9. South Dakota (D)
10. Kentucky (R)
I'm not willing to move New Hampshire higher until Shaheen jumps in, but Sununu is definitely in BIG trouble.
The only real change I decided was to take Nebraska out and replace it with New Mexico, old Pistol Pete is barely staying above 50%, and if the Dems here can get a decent candidate, we can make a race of it. Besides which, even if Hagel retires, Nebraska is such a red state that only a really strong Democrat like Bob Kerrey would really make it a race.
Democrats:
1. LA-Sen: Landrieu is gonna have the strongest challenge of any Dem senator up in 2008. With Katrina Displacement and Republicans apprently on a roll in 2008 it won't be easy for her to pull a victory off. Hoepfully the Republicans put up a weak candidate. (Tossup)
2. SD-Sen: We should be able to hold this seat assumeing that Tim Johnson runs again. Only way I see it getting competitive is if he retires or Gov. Rounds (R) enters the race. (Lean Dem)
3. NJ-Sen: Does anyone know if Lautenberg has decided on running again or not? For some reason I have a feeling a GOP Congressman is gonna run for this seat and make it competitve. (Dem Favored)
4. IA-Sen: Harkin should be able to win again if he runs again. If not it becomes an open field but I still think the Dems. would have the advantage. (Dem Favored)
5. DE-Sen: I'm wondering if Biden is going to run again assmueing his presidential campaign doesn't go very well. (Dem Favored)
Republicans:
1. CO-Sen: Rep. Mark Udall (D) is an excillent candidate who has brought in a large amount of $$. The Republican in the race is a hardcore conservative and I don't think that will play well in this state that is becomeing more and more blue every year. (Lean Dem)
2. NH-Sen: If Shaeen runs I think it's a done deal but even so I think any of the 3 lesser known Democrats are more likely to win than Sununu. New Hampshire like Colorado is tending blue. (Lean Dem)
3. VA-Sen: This race all depends on who runs on both sides. If Sen. Warner runs again it will be difficult to take this seat. If he retires the most likely GOP nominee will be Rep. Tom Davis. On the Democratic side everyone is hoping Mark Warner runs but if he doesn't who else will step up to the plate? (No Clear Favorite)
4. ME-Sen: This race allready has it's two nominees. The race is between Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Rep. Tom Allen (D) I consider it a clash of the Maine titans hah. This could go either way and it's all about how well Allen can show Collins support of the Bush Administration. (No Clear Favorite)
5. MN-Sen: I think Franklen is gonna end up winning the Democratic Nomination allthough that might be wishful thinking :). I think a lot of people on both sides underestamate his chances of winning. Sen. Norm Coleman is an accidental Senator and should be taken down this year. (No Clear Favorite)
6. OR-Sen: Sen. Smith can be beaten we just need to find the right candidate. Any ideas on who can beat him? (Lean Republican)
7. NM-Sen: Same situation as Oregon except the incumbent could retire and his popularity is built on expierience instead of being a Psuedo moderate. (Lean Republican)
8. NC-Sen: Sen. Elizebeth Dole should'nt be given a free pass She isn't very popular and really isn't even from the state. Can the Democrats find somone to take her on (Lean Republican)
9. NE-Sen: With the Republican Primary Challenge to Hagel and the possible entry of Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey this race needs to have a close eye watching it. If the stars come together right we could pick this one up. (Lean Republican)
10. MS-Sen: Anyone know if Cochran is running again? I heard he was still considering retirement. The Dems. should be ready for that. (Republican Favored)
11. ID-Sen: Rep. Larry Larocco (D) is a great candidate and if any Democrat can win in Idaho it's him. The problem is he's running in Idaho. (Republican Favored)
12. TX-Sen: State Rep. Rick Noriega and Attorney Mikal Watts (D) are going to have a competitive primary if Noriega gets in. I don't know if Cornyn can be beat due to the Redness of Texas and a competitive primary but hopefully he can be beaten. (Republican Favored)
13. SC-Sen: With a possible Primary challenge on the right and low approvals we might just have a small shot at beating Sen. Graham. We still need to find a candidate of our own however that can win in Republican South Carolina. (Republican Favored)
14. KY-Sen: McConell isn't exactly very popular but it's hard to overthrow a party leader. The Democrats need to find a strong candidate as well. (Republican Favored)
15. OK-Sen: Is State Sen. Andrew Rice (D) in? and if so can he win? he's gonna need all the luck and help in the world to win in Oklahoma heh. (Republican Favored)
It took me only a few weeks to familiarize myself with the American political system, so here are my observations:
Where is New Mexico on this list? Pete Domenici certainly isn't safe! Bill Richardson may say he may not be a rock star, but he certainly could be Senator from New Mexico if he chooses to run for that instead for President.
As for Oregon, I really hope Congressman Earl Blumenauer changes his mind. Steve Novick seems like a decent and honest man, but he has zero state profile. Blumenauer'll be 60 yrs old in 2008, the average age of a United States Senator, and he has experience and profile in the state (plus I love his little bow tie!). Plus, Novick does not need to abandon his political aspirations, because he could just run for Blumenauer's open and pretty safe seat and develop his profile better that way.
If Chuck Schumer and the DSCC could pull off a political coup by having Jeanne Shaheen, Mark Warner, Richardson, and Dave Freudenthal announce on the same day that they're running for Senate in New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, and Wyoming respectively, I would bend down and kiss Sen. Schumer's feet, even if some bird just pooped on them!
That Kennedy committed in a meeting with Rove, but nothing has been heard since then. Admittedly, though, the Senate news out of Louisiana has been very noisy the last couple of weeks. And with the Governor's race less than three months out from Election Day, not that many people are paying attention to the race yet.
Colorado
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Oregon
North Carolina
Kentucky
Louisiana
Alaska
New Mexico
Nebraska
Texas
New Jersey
Alabama
Oklahoma
Democratic Seats
Safe Democratic
1)Delaware-Biden
2)Illinios-Durbin
3)Iowa- Harkin
4)Massachusetts-Kerry
5)Michigan-Levin
6)Montana- Baucus
7)New Jersey- Lautenberg
8)Rhode Island-Reed
9)West Virginia-Rockefeller
Democratic Favored
1)Arkansas- Pryor
2)South Dakota- Johnson
Leans Democratic
1)Louisiana- Landrieu
Republican Seats
Safe Republican
1)Alabama- Sessions
2)Alaska- Stevens
3)Georgia- Chambliss
4)Idaho- Craig
5)Kansas- Roberts
6)Kentucky- McConnell
7)Mississippi- Cochran
8)Nebraska- Hagel
9)New Mexico- Domenici
10)Oklahoma- Inhofe
11)South Carolina- Graham
12)Tennessee-Alexander
13)Texas- Cornyn
14)Wyoming-A- Enzi
15)Wyoming-B- Barrasso
Republican Favored
1)North Carolina- Dole
2)Oregon- Smith
Leans Republican
1)Maine- Collins
2)Minnesota- Coleman
Tossup
1)New Hampshire- Sununu
2)Virginia- OPEN
Leans Democratic-
1)Colorado- OPEN
Democratic Seats-(Democratic incumbents facing Republican Challengers that are sacrificial lambs.
1)Arkansas- Pryor
2)Delaware- Biden
3)Illinios- Durbin
4)Iowa- Harkin
5)Massachusetts- Kerry
6)Michigan- Levin
7)Montana- Baucus
8)New Jersey- Lautenberg
9)Rhode Island- Reed
10)South Dakota- Johnson
11)West Virginia- Rockefeller
Vulnerable- Democratic.
1)Lousiana- Landrieu (Incumbent favored.
Safe Republican
1)Alabama- Sessions
2)Idaho- Craig
3)Kansas- Roberts
4)Nebraska- Hagel
5)South Carolina- Graham
6)Tennessee- Alexander
7)Wyoming- Enzi
8)Wyoming- Barasso
Vulnerable Republican
A)- Macaca Members
1) Georgia- Chambliss
2)Oklahoma- Inhofe
3)Texas- Cornyn
B) Scandal Plagued Incumbents
1) Alaska- Stevens
2)New Mexico- Domenici-(Potential Democratic Pick up)
C) Potential OPEN Seats
1)Mississippi- Cochran
2)Virginia- Warner-(Potential Democratic Pick up)
D) Incumbents Vulnerable because of Bad Environment(Strong DSCC recruitment).
1)Kentucky- McConnell-
2)Maine- Collins
3)Oregon- Smith-
E) Weak Incumbents-
1)Minnesota- Coleman
2)New Hampshire- Sununu- Democratic pick up
3)North Carolina- Dole
F)OPEN Seat
1)Colorado- OPEN- Democratic Pick up
1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Louisiana
4. Minnesota
5. Oregon – would be 3rd is Smith had a top notch challenger
6. Maine
7.Virginia
8. Kentucky
9. Alaska
10. New Mexico / Nebraska / South Dakota
1) New Hampshire
2) Colorado
3) Virginia… counting chickens, I know, but if J Warner were planning to bow out to T Davis, he would do it just… like… this.
4) Oregon
5) Louisiana
6) Maine
7) South Dakota a big GOP candidate could declare in May and still have time to win. The national GOP just can't afford to let this one slide.
8) Minnesota
9) Stevens. Another Republican might win the seat, but he's done.
10) North Carolina
11) Nebraska Johanns is gonna elbow Kerrey out, I fear.
12) Kentucky Stumbo declaring is pretty good stuff.
13) Texas would rank higher if the state weren't so damn expensive.
14) New Mexico if Hillary loses the nomination to Obama, does Richardson give up on VP and SecState and run for Senate? a guy can dream. most likely configuration looks to be Clinton-Richardson ticket with Biden as SecState. they need to get Obama out of the damn Senate; governor or AttyGen. or VP I guess.
15) Idaho
16) Mississippi
17) South Carolina if Graham gets primaried. Actually, I wonder if Graham could/would pull a CfL in that case. State dems might consider it.
18) Montana
19) Iowa
20) Oklahoma
21) Kansas
1. Colorado
2. New Hampshire
3. Louisiana
4. Maine
5. Virginia
6. South Dakota
7. Kentucky
8. Oregon
9. North Carolina
10. Texas
A)Non OPEN Safe Seats
1)Alabama- Sessions(R)
2)Arkansas- Pryor(D)
3)Delaware- Biden(D)
4)Illinios- Durbin(D)
5)Iowa- Harkin(D)
6)Kansas- Roberts(R)
7)Massachusetts- Kerry(D)
8)Michigan- Levin(D)
9)Montana- Baucus(D)
10)New Jersey- Lautenberg(D)
11)Rhode Island- Reed(D)
12)South Dakota- Johnson(D)
13)Tennessee- Alexander(R)
14)West Virginia- Rockefeller(D)
15)Wyoming- Enzi(R)
B)Safe Potenial OPEN Seats (Incumbent Party Favored)
1)Idaho- Craig(R) might retire
2)Nebraska- Hagel(R) might lose in primary
3)South Carolina- Graham(R) might lose in primary
4)Wyoming-Barasso(R)- might lose in primary
C)Potential Competive OPEN Seats
1)Alaska- Stevens(R)- Safe in open. Competitive(Incumbent Favored- if Stevens runs again.
2)Mississippi- Cochran(R)- Competitive(Tossup) if open. safe if Cochran runs again.
3)New Mexico- Domenici(R)- lean Takeover if Open. Competive (incumbent favored) if Domenici runs again.
4)Virginia- Warner(R)- lean Takeover if Open. Safe if Warner(R) runs again.
D)Macaca Moments- Gaffe Prone Incumbents
1)Georgia- Chambliss(R)
2)Oklahoma- Inhofe(R)
3)Texas- Cornyn(R)
E)Incumbents vulnerable due to National environment.
1)Kentucky- McConnell-R (Strong Challenger recruitment.)
2)Maine- Collins-R (Strong Challenger recruitment.)
3)Oregon- Smith(R)- Strong Challenger recruitment.)
F)Weak Incumbents.
1)Louisiana- Landrieu(D)- Incumbent Favored.
2)Minnesota- Coleman(R)- Tossup
3)New Hampshire- Sununu-(R)- Lean Takeover
4)North Carolina- Dole-(R) Incumbent Favored
G)Vulnerable OPEN Seat
1)Colorado- Allard(R)- Lean Takeover
Lean Takeover
1)Colorado-(OPEN-Allard-R)
2)New Hampshire- Sununu-R w/Shaheen-D
3)New Mexico-(Domenici-R)-if OPEN
4)Virginia- Warner-R if OPEN- w/Warner-D
Tossup
1)Mississippi- (Cochran-R) if OPEN w/Moore-D
2)Nebraska-(Hagel-R)if OPEN w/Kerrey-D
3)New Hampshire-(Sununu-R) w/out Shaheen-D
Narrow Incumbent Advantage
1)Kentucky- (McConnell-R)w/Stumbo
2)Louisiana- (Landrieu-D)
3)Maine- (Collins-R)
4)Minnesota-(Coleman-R)
5)Oregon-(Smith-R)
6)Virginia- (Warner-R)if OPEN- w/out Warner-D
Clear Incumbent Advantage
1)Alaska- (Stevens-R)
2)Georgia-(Chambliss-R)-Macaca
3)Idaho- (Craig-R)
4)Kentucky-(McConnell-R) w/out Stumbo
5)Mississippi-(Cochran-R)OPEN w/out Moore-D
6)Nebraska- (Hagel-R)OPEN-w/out Kerrey-D
7)New Mexico- (Domenici-R)
8)North Carolina- (Dole-R)
9)Oklahoma- (Inhofe-R)-Macaca
10)South Dakota-(Johnson-D)
11)Texas- (Cornyn-R)-Macaca
Safe Incumbent
1)Alabama-(Sessions-R)
2)Arkansas-(Pryor-D)
3)Delaware- (Biden-D)
4)Illinios- (Durbin-D)
5)Iowa- (Harkin-D)
6)Kansas- (Roberts-R)
7)Massachusetts-(Kerry-D)
8)Michigan-(Levin-D)
9)Mississippi-(Cochran-R)
10)Montana-(Baucus-D)
11)Nebraska-(Hagel-R)
12)Rhode Island-(Reed-D)
13)South Carolina-(Graham-R)
14)Tennessee- (Alexander-R)
15)Virginia-(Warner-R)
16)West Virginia-(Rockefeller-R)
17)Wyoming-a (Enzi-R)
18)Wyoming-b (Barasso-R)